“Math-based models have become the secret machinery of our society, and this book draws back the curtain for a close look…. A complex subject rendered in accessible terms, with good advice for using models without drowning in data.”―Kirkus (starred) "An eye-opening account of the limits and uses of mathematical models... a thoughtful, convincing look at how data works."―Publishers Weekly (starred) “Data, computing power, AI, and the models that use them will continue to proliferate. The wisdom, life experience, and humility to make the best use of those powerful tools will remain scarce. This delightfully wide-ranging book offers heaps of the latter to help us generate genuine insights from the former.”―Charles J. Wheelan, New York Times-bestselling author of Naked Statistics “A brilliant account of how models are so often abused and of how they should be used.”―John Kay, author of Other People’s Money “Escape from Model Land demystifies the process of making the mathematical models that are increasingly used to make decisions about our lives, from the financial markets to the pandemic to climate change. A thought-provoking and helpful guide for data scientists and decision makers alike.”―Stephanie Hare, author of Technology Is Not Neutral “A wise, lucid and compelling guide to how mathematical modelling shapes our world. Thompson teaches us how to go from being unthinking consumers of models to sophisticated users, combining a rich variety of vivid examples and case studies with deep conceptual expertise, presented in a lively and accessible way.”―Stian Westlake, CEO, Royal Statistical Society

Chapter Page 1. Locating Model Land 1 2. Thinking Inside the Box 13 3. Models as Metaphors 30 4. The Cat that Looks Most Like a Do 47 5. Fiction, Prediction and Conviction 74 6. The Accountability Gap 93 7. Masters of the Universe 114 8. The Atmosphere is Complicated 137 9. Totally Under Control 178 10. Escaping from Model Land 202 Acknowledgements 225 Further Reading 229 Index 237